“According to” or “Despite” Constraints? Reconstructing Narratives in South Korea’s Demographic Challenge

South Korea’s record-low fertility rate is drawing worldwide concern, as the country recorded a historically low total fertility rate of 0.72 in 2023. The sense of crisis has escalated, as reflected in international media. The New York Times expressed concerns about Korea’s potential disappearance, comparing it to Europe’s Black Death in the 14th century. In response to this continued decline, the Korean government established the Presidential Committee on Aging Society and Population Policy in 2005 and has since introduced a series of policy measures. In 2024, the Korean government declared a national emergency to address the fertility crisis.

While financial and structural constraints play a significant role in fertility decisions, they are not the sole determinants. Vignoli et al. (2020) propose that fertility intentions are shaped by narratives of the future—the way individuals interpret their circumstances and imagine their prospects. Decisions about long-term family formation, such as marriage and childbirth, inherently involve uncertainty. Whether individuals choose to remain unmarried and childless because of this uncertainty or decide to marry and have children despite it is influenced by narratives at both the individual and societal levels.

Figure 1. Process of Family Formation Decision

What, then, shapes these narratives? Empirical evidence suggests that a positive outlook on the future is associated with higher fertility intentions, even among individuals with similar economic conditions (Kwan & Choi, 2023). Another ongoing study suggests that strong communal ties can enhance the quality of child-rearing experiences (Kwan et al., under review). Additionally, social media is gaining attention as a crucial factor in shaping fertility-related narratives.

Addressing low fertility cannot—and should not—be achieved through government policies alone. While policies can help alleviate structural barriers such as housing shortages, workplace conditions, and the financial costs of child-rearing, fertility decisions are influenced by more than just economic and structural constraints. The construction of narratives at both the individual and societal levels must not be overlooked. This requires active participation from families, schools, businesses, the media, and local communities.

South Korea is at the forefront of an extreme demographic challenge, but this issue is not unique to Korea. As low fertility trends spread across many countries, it is time for a collaborative approach—one that brings together governments and societies to shape positive narratives for the future.

References

Kwan, D. & Choi, S. (2023). Examining the Link Between Future Prospects and Intentions to Have Children. The Korean Journal of Policy Studies, 38(1), 59-70.

Ross Douthat (2023). Is South Korea Disappearing? The New York Times. 2023.12.2 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/02/opinion/south-korea-birth-dearth.html

Vignoli, D., Guetto, R., Bazzani, G., Pirani, E., & Minello, A. (2020). A reflection on economic uncertainty and fertility in Europe: The narrative framework. Genus, 76, 1-27.