Total Fertility Rate in the Philippines Drops From 2.7 To 1.9 in Just Five Years
Results of the 2022 Philippine National Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS), show that the total fertility rate (TFR) in the Philippines has dropped from 2.7 children per woman in 2017 to 1.9 in 2022, or a decline of almost one child in just about five years. While the Philippine TFR has been steadily declining over time, the decline may have been quickened by the recent COVID-19 pandemic. A study initiated by the Philippine Commission on Population and Development reveals that the economic uncertainty during the pandemic influenced Filipino couples' fertility behavior. This implies that the recent decline is due to fertility postponement rather than childbearing stopping. Therefore, the country's TFR is expected to rebound in the coming years, as evidenced by the recent birth increase based on administrative data.
Although the decline is "temporary," it will have long-term implications. For one, it will result in a much smaller cohort of school-age population and entrants to the labor market. It may ease the pressure, albeit temporarily, on the country's education and employment infrastructures. This sudden change in age structure will also indirectly affect older Filipino people. Future cohorts of older Filipinos will be more economically independent than previous cohorts, but a significant proportion still rely on their children for economic, social, and instrumental support. Hence, the sudden fertility decline may impact the pool of available children who can support and care for the older people.
While the Philippines is still recovering from the pandemic's impact, attention must go beyond increasing or maintaining the current TFR of 1.9. More immediate efforts should be devoted to addressing the country's perennial problems that stem partly from the country's demographic profile, including high poverty incidence and unemployment rates, lack of classrooms and health facilities, and limited government support for older people. Addressing these issues will directly or indirectly impact the "quantity" and "quality" of the Philippine population.
