Singapore’s Fertility Rate Falls Below One
The "Population in Brief 2024," released yesterday, revealed that Singapore's resident fertility rate has declined to 0.97, placing it among a select group of countries with fertility rates below 1. This marks an 85% decline from the 1950s*, one of the steepest global declines, reflecting a significant demographic shift. Despite a series of policies aimed at promoting marriage and increasing fertility, these measures have had little impact on reversing the downward trends in marriage and childbearing. For those who do have children, government initiatives such as subsidised kindergarten, enhanced early childhood education, extended parental leave, and various support schemes have proved beneficial.
Although the fertility decline has resulted in smaller cohorts, competition within education and employment remains intense. Parents continue to invest heavily in their children's futures, reflecting the societal emphasis on educational and economic success. The brief highlights rising non-marriage rates, an increasing proportion of singles, and a median age of over 31 for first births. Notably, the proportion of married women aged 40-49 who remain childless has risen from 9.6% to 14.2% over the past decade, indicating that declining fertility is driven both by fewer marriages and more couples opting to remain childless.
The challenges associated with ultra-low fertility are well documented. One such issue, as noted in the brief, is the shifting age structure of the population. The proportion of citizens aged 65 and above has risen to one in five, and this is expected to reach one in four by the end of the decade, fuelled by the ageing of the baby boomer generation. A shrinking younger population alongside a growing older population will shape Singapore's near-term demographic future.
